The reasons for the significant drop in silver prices on June 3rd can be analyzed from the following aspects:
Market response to Federal Reserve policy: Reports suggest that the Fed’s concerns about inflation persist, leading to market expectations that interest rates may remain at a high level. A high interest rate environment usually suppresses the demand for precious metals, as precious metals do not provide fixed income like bonds or other interest earning assets, resulting in a decrease in their relative attractiveness.
European Central Bank policy expectation: The market expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to announce a rate cut in this Thursday’s interest rate resolution, which has also put pressure on silver prices. Lowering interest rates usually boosts local currencies, but may lead to a relative strengthening of the US dollar. As precious metals are priced in US dollars, a stronger US dollar will increase the cost of purchasing precious metals in other currencies, thereby suppressing demand.
Technical factors: The daily chart shows that silver prices are running below the middle of the Bollinger Bands, and the short-term moving average crosses the long-term moving average to form a dead cross. The MACD indicator also shows a sell signal, and the bearish signals of these technical indicators may have triggered technical selling, accelerating the decline of silver prices.
Macroeconomic data expectations: The US economic data that the market was watching on that day, including the final S&P global manufacturing PMI in May, ISM manufacturing PMI, and monthly construction expenditure rate in April, may indicate strong economic growth, which enhances market confidence in economic growth and reduces safe haven demand, thus creating a bearish outlook on precious metals such as silver.
Market sentiment and capital flow: As market risk appetite rebounds, funds may flow out of safe haven assets such as precious metals and instead invest in high-risk asset categories such as stocks, which may also be a factor leading to a decline in silver prices.
In summary, the decline in silver prices on June 3rd was the result of multiple factors, including monetary policy expectations, technical selling signals, macroeconomic data expectations, and changes in market sentiment.
6月3日白银价格出现大幅下跌的原因可以从以下几个方面进行分析：
- 市场对美联储政策的反应：有报道指出，美联储对通胀的担忧持续存在，导致市场预期利率可能会维持在较高水平。高利率环境通常会抑制贵金属的需求，因为贵金属不像债券或其他利息收益资产那样提供固定收益，从而使得贵金属相对吸引力下降。
- 欧洲央行政策预期：市场预计欧洲央行（欧银）将在本周四的利率决议中宣布降息，这一预期也对白银价格造成了压力。降息通常会提振当地货币，但可能促使美元相对走强，由于贵金属以美元计价，美元走强会使以其他货币购买贵金属的成本上升，从而抑制需求。
- 技术面因素：日线图显示白银价格运行于布林带中轨之下，且短期均线下穿长期均线形成死叉，MACD指标也显示卖出信号，这些技术指标的看跌信号可能引发了技术性卖盘，加速了白银价格的下跌。
- 宏观经济数据预期：当天市场关注的美国经济数据，包括5月的标普全球制造业PMI终值、ISM制造业PMI以及4月的营建支出月率等，预期数据可能显示经济强劲，这增强了市场对经济增长的信心，减少了避险需求，从而对白银等贵金属构成利空。
- 市场情绪与资金流向：随着市场风险偏好回升，资金可能从避险资产如贵金属流出，转而投向股票等风险较高的资产类别，这也可能是导致白银价格下跌的一个因素。
综上所述，6月3日白银价格的下跌是由多重因素共同作用的结果，包括货币政策预期、技术面卖出信号、宏观经济数据预期以及市场情绪变化等。